Brian Bailey Preface to the Revised Edition

Election Season: Iowa Predictions

My predictions for the Iowa caucuses. Join me on twitter tonight to discuss the results!


1. Obama 28%
2. Clinton 27%
3. Edwards 24%
4. Richardson 11%


1. Huckabee 27%
2. Romney 25%
3. McCain 15%
4. Paul 9%
5. Thompson 8%

Quick thoughts: I think (and hope) Obama pulls out a victory, but it will be so close that the Clintons and the media will spin it as a tie. I actually wish that Romney would defeat Huckabee, but I think all of the national media scorn of Huckabee, Romney's relentless attacks, and Huckabee's ability to cast the election as David vs. Goliath, will fire up the evangelical base to send a message. I'm hoping the bigger story is McCain's strong 3rd, after barely campaigning there, but there's always a possibility that Paul or even Thompson (though hard to imagine) could be the surprise.