Republicans in FloridaJanuary 24, 2008
The Florida primary is Tuesday and could be decisive. If Giuliani doesn't win (and he's currently third in some polls), he is officially finished (as opposed to being unofficially finished for the past 3 weeks). A McCain victory almost guarantees he does well on Super Tuesday and wins the nomination. If Romney wins, the 2-man battle continues indefinitely. Unless Huckabee pulls off a major surprise, he will continue to fade into the distance. Paul can continue to run indefinitely due to the impressive amount of money he has raised, but is unlikely to ever move past the 10-12% of support he has reached in a few of the contested races. Since most Republican contests are winner-take-all as far as delegates go, that doesn't help much.
All of this means that tonight's debate on MSNBC should be intense. It many ways, it may be the last chance for someone to challenge McCain, who's been treated quite well in the debates. These are desperate times for many of these candidates, and that always makes things interesting.